Wild Guesses About the 2024 Reds

Let's hear your bold predictions!

Gambling on sports has been in the news lately, you may have seen. I don’t do any sports betting. I suppose there are people who make money by betting on sports, but I don’t know any of them, and I’m certainly not one of them. The few times I’ve dipped my toe into those waters, I quickly lost a couple of bucks and decided to go back to wasting my money on more ridiculous things, like a subscription to The Athletic.

My extended family does a March Madness bracket pool every year, not for money, only for bragging rights. (I’ve tried to convince the family to get a trophy to give to the winner every year, but no one takes it seriously enough for that.) Precisely once over the last 15 or 20 years, however long we’ve been doing this, I came out on top at the end of the tournament. Part of the problem, I think, is that I pick Virginia and/or Georgetown* to go entirely too far in the tourney. Sentimentality always wins out for me, which causes me to crash and burn in our pool.

*You kids may not remember it, but Georgetown once qualified for the NCAA tournament with regularity.

That sentimentality is mostly why I just stay away from gambling. I watch most sports because I want to see my team win and, frankly, if my team isn’t playing, I don’t care who wins* and a little money on the outcome isn’t going to change that. And I’m far too stingy with my money to spend more than a tiny bit of it on sports betting. Besides, I’m saving up my pennies for that trip to Morocco I’ve been planning.

*As long as the Cardinals lose, of course.

Opening Day 2011

Anyway, all of this is a far too long preamble to say that I don’t take any of my predictions seriously. For example, as I noted in my column this week, I predicted last spring that the Reds would win 81 games, despite the fact that they’d lost 100 the season before. When they won 82 games, surprising everyone in the baseball world, I pretty much looked like a genius. But I am a genius, so it kinda worked out, you know? I’m also incredibly modest.

That 81-win prediction last year was made in response to my friend Kasey’s annual request for #RedsWinsProjections before Opening Day. My prediction of 81 wins was based on nothing more than the fact that 81 wins would make me far happier than the most common guesses.

Such was the same in response to this year’s call for predictions. I’m not sure what this year’s Reds are going to do. I doubt anyone has a clue about that, for a variety of reasons. So I predicted 95 wins for the good guys. Because that’s what I’d love to see.

Reds management did very little to improve the team over the off-season, and they’re suffering from a rash of injuries. The computer projection models say that the Reds are likely to win fewer than 80 games. It’s not far-fetched to think that things could go south in a hurry this year.

On the other hand, as I started writing this year’s season preview for The Mother Ship, I began to talk myself into this team. The young talent is real, as we discussed all last season. No, management didn’t make any big deals that moved the needle, but Nick Krall & co. did acquire some arms that will provide depth. The pitching should be better (though it could hardly be worse than it was in 2023). The team could be legit.

Plus, all the computer models say that there are no great teams in the NL Central. The Reds don’t need to be great to win this division; 88 wins would likely be enough.

But I’m going to predict 95 wins. Sure, that’s probably the sentimentality talking. But it’s that time of year, right?

Enjoy Opening Day!

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Prediction Contest

Let’s have a little prediction contest! In the comments below, drop in your predictions for the following two questions:

1. What will the Reds’ record be at the end of this 2024 season?

2. (tiebreaker) Which Reds pitcher will finish the season with the most wins?

Whoever gets closest to the mark wins a Scott Schebler bobblehead (or a better one if I can find something good in the basement). The second question will only be used in the event of a tie.

Hint: Don’t use sentimentality as your guide!

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This week at Cincinnati Magazine: The Reds are Certainly Living in Interesting Times

Attempting to predict the outcome of sporting events in America is a fool’s game. Need evidence? Take a quick glance at your March Madness bracket and let me know how you’re doing. I’m guessing there’s a lot of red ink on that sheet. You probably even picked Auburn to go to the Final Four. What were you thinking?

While predicting sports may be difficult for you, the common fan, you should be aware that I, the brilliant pundit, have no such limitations. A year ago, with the Reds limping toward Opening Day, struggling to sell tickets on the heels of a disastrous 100-loss season, most observers predicted that the Reds would win somewhere between 64 and 70 games in 2023. Even the moneyline experts in Vegas set Cincinnati’s over/under for wins at 65.5. No one could have predicted that the Reds would surprise the baseball world and avoid a losing record, right?

You can guess where this is going. One year ago this week, I made the fearless prediction that Cincinnati would go 81-81. I missed the mark, but just barely; the Reds actually finished 82-80.

All this is to say that you should trust my predictions more than anyone else’s on this planet, and if you’re willing to follow me to the end of this column, you’ll find my prediction for the upcoming Reds season. But don’t skip ahead! (As always, however, remember: This is not a competition. It’s only an exhibition. Please, no wagering. Someone should mention this to Shohei Ohtani and/or his friends.) Read the rest of this week’s Reds column over at Cincinnati Magazine.

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What’s Chad Watching?

Can you believe I had never seen the original Road House before this week? Well, I hadn’t, so I had to make time before I go see the new version in theaters. The Patrick Swayze one is really pretty okay! Mostly because Road House-era Sam Elliott is the coolest guy who ever walked the planet.

The Glass Key is a film noir featuring Veronica Lake and Alan Ladd. Not great, but watchable.