What the Sonny Gray saga tells you about the Reds
And why the failure to sign Gray might represent an exciting development for the club
Let me tell you, the news this week about Sonny Gray was a gut punch. Okay, that isn’t actually true. It was only mildly annoying. But it was annoying.
I’m not talking about the fact that Gray signed a contract to pitch for someone other than the Cincinnati Reds. That was disappointing, to be sure. Gray probably had the most underrated Reds career of any pitcher in my lifetime.* I would have loved to see his triumphant return to Cincinnati, a veteran arm to lead the youthful pitcher brigade in 2024. But we have a long, shared history of watching free agents sign elsewhere. No one should be surprised when it happens again.
*Who else is on that list? Aaron Harang, certainly. Elmer Dessens. John Smiley, maybe? Or was he properly rated? This demands another pointless newsletter deep dive, I imagine.
No, the annoying part, as I’m sure you’ve guessed, was the fact that Gray signed with the stupid Cardinals. Why did it have to be St. Louis, of all destinations?
Also annoying, though completely understandable, was this quote from Gray after he inked a 3-year, $75 million contract:
“Where I am in my career, I want to win. Walking in here this morning, you see the history. It’s there. The feel is there. It’s a baseball town and a baseball city, a place I’m thrilled to be able to come be a part of.”
If you ignore the first sentence, he could be describing Cincinnati. It’s that first sentence that hits hard, and you can’t blame the guy. Whatever we think about the bright future of the current roster, it’s a simple fact that players aren’t going to come here if one of their primary desires is to play for a winning club. This franchise hasn’t won a playoff series in nearly three decades. It will take a while to change that narrative. Hopefully beginning in 2024.
But hey, we do have history here. And we’re still a baseball town in many ways. I wasn’t so sure of that until last June. But now it’s undeniable; when the Reds are making an effort to win, there isn’t a better baseball town anywhere.
There are a couple more points about the whole Sonny Gray thing that I want to unpack before we move on to what it says about GM Nick Krall’s strategy for this off-season. You can make a good argument that Gray isn’t the right fit for the 2024 Reds. After all, he’s going to be 35 years old next season. Is that a good risk to take? I think it would have been, but there’s a reasonable argument that it would have been too risky. I’ll concede that.
I look at Gray and I see a guy who is, yes, 35, but who finished second in the American League Cy Young Award balloting just last year, even at this advanced age. And I’m still mesmerized by his performance the last time he pitched in a Reds uniform (3.49 ERA, 135 ERA+, 10.1 bWAR over three seasons).
But I also see a guy who has battled plenty of injury problems. This is a common refrain from the #GetKralled crowd on social media who are seemingly glad the Reds weren’t able to sign Gray. And it’s a good point!
Of course, many in that same crowd think the Reds would be okay to stand pat with the rotation because they have a stable of talented young pitchers who should improve next year. And that’s true too! But it requires you to pay no attention to the fact that nearly every one of these kid hurlers have had injury problems too. Because they are pitchers. Pitchers get hurt. That’s why good teams stockpile as many quality arms as possible.
Others seem to think that the price was too high for Gray. I’ll be frank: that’s a ridiculous argument. First of all, that’s the market rate for a good veteran pitcher, which the Reds need. It’s what the Reds are going to have to pay.* At some point, you have to open the wallet for good big league baseball players.
*Listen, be a fan however you want to be a fan. It’s okay, really. But I’ll never understand why a certain portion of the Reds fan base literally believes the Reds should never pay market value for any player ever. Actually, I completely understand it. It’s Stockholm Syndrome.
Further, the Reds have money to spend! They literally have two players under contract for 2024. At the moment, the payroll will be in the neighborhood of $52 million without any other signings. The average MLB payroll last year was $166 million. Do not make the mistake of believing the Reds can’t spend big, if they choose to.
But I digress… While the #GetKralled chattering class online thinks the Reds should just stand pat on the pitching front, their hero Nick Krall appears to disagree. Shortly after Gray signed with the most unlikable organization in professional sports, MLB.com beat writer Mark Sheldon reported that, “according to a source, the Reds were pursuing Sonny Gray and were close before he went to the Cardinals….”
My first thought upon seeing that was to roll my eyes. I’m getting too cynical about this team, I admit, but it seems obvious that this source is from within the Reds organization — and possibly Krall himself. It’s the easiest thing in the world for Krall to leak that he was “pursuing” Gray and that they were “close.” What does that even mean, anyway? Unless Gray himself confirms it, I’d recommend a healthy dose of skepticism that the Reds were actually in the mix for Gray’s services.
On the other hand, this leak does indicate that the Reds have acknowledged internally that they need to improve the pitching staff this winter. And that is a very encouraging sign. I’ve become so accustomed to the Reds steadfastly refusing to address obvious areas of need that I’m genuinely excited by this revelation. Krall actually knows the Reds need pitching and he can’t just rely on the kids! Huzzah!
Other leaks this week confirm that fact, and gives us an interesting look into Krall’s potential strategy. Sheldon also indicated that the Reds were pursuing (there’s that word again) a trade for Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. That was confirmed by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, who reported that Cincinnati was also in trade discussions for Cleveland’s Shane Bieber.
I’ll leave a discussion into the merits of each of these pitchers for another day, but Bieber and Glasnow have something in common: both guys are only under contract for one more season. Would the Reds really trade assets for a pitcher who would ultimately be a short-term rental? What does that say about the club’s strategy long-term? It certainly indicates a shift in organizational thinking over the last few months, since the trade deadline fiasco, and makes me think something interesting is percolating within the Cincinnati front office.
The fact remains that other teams in the National League Central division are working overtime to improve their roster while the Reds have done very little so far. But the off-season has just begun. Perhaps exciting things are in store for Reds fans in the next month or two. More than just “pursuing” and getting “close,” hopefully.
I owe you an explanation
Judging from my inbox and twitter mentions, a number of you have noticed that I was on a bit of an unplanned hiatus for the last six weeks. (Those of you who didn’t notice just make me sad. It’s like you don’t even care.)
As I mentioned last time, I was unexpectedly appointed to a fairly demanding new position that has taken up way more of my time professionally than my previous position. It’s not quite 24/7, but pretty close. And then I took a preplanned trip to India, of all places. That was a solo trip, and it was wild. Complete and utter chaos, an assault on all the senses. I’ve never been anywhere like it. (Maybe I’ll write about some of my travels one of these days, if that’s something you’d be interested in.)
So anyway, events have conspired to keep me away from The Riverfront for a few weeks. But I’m back, things have settled down, and I have a ton of column ideas in draft form waiting to be finished. This is going to be a fun winter here.* Tell your friends!
*For me, anyway.