What happened to the Reds bats?
Help us, TJ Friedl. You're our only hope.
Last week, my column over at The Mother Ship was sort of a vibe check about where the Reds stood at that point in the season. The headline atop that piece didn’t really describe it perfectly, but hey, I don’t write ‘em and I don’t really care. But it posed a good question: The Reds pitchers are coming around. Will the hitters be next?
One week later, the early returns are not promising. As I was forced to concede this week:
Cincinnati’s offense has been nothing short of horrific. During this five-game skid, they’ve scored a grand total of eight runs. By pretty much every measure, Reds hitters have been among the five-worst groups in the game. Only three hitters on the club (Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Jake Fraley) have produced above-average numbers, and Fraley has been limited to 65 at-bats thanks to injury. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Stuart Fairchild, and Nick Martini have been among the very worst hitters in either league to get regular playing time.
After losing last night to Arizona by a 6-2 margin, the losing streak is now six games, and nine of their last eleven. The Reds collected just three hits, but they did score two runs, thanks to solo homers from Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson. Given what we’ve seen lately, that seems like an offensive outburst.
TJ Friedl did return in the leadoff spot, which is a good thing, even though he did go 0-for-4 in his season debut. I’m of the opinion that Friedl had his career year last season and is never likely to approach those numbers again. I sincerely hope I’m wrong about that, because I love watching that guy play. His defense is great and he’s the only guy since Norris Hopper that I enjoy watching lay down a bunt.
But even if he doesn’t approach last year’s stat line (.279/.352/.467, 118 OPS+, 3.8 bWAR), he’ll still be a vast improvement over the dreck Cincinnati has run out to center field so far this year. Reds CFs have collectively posted a slash line of .175/.244/.333 over the first 35 games of the season, mostly because of Stuart Fairchild’s 39 OPS+ (.179/.247/.239).
Frankly, that’s way better than what the Reds are getting out of their third basemen so far. That group is hitting .132/.219/.240 as a group, with off-season acquisition Jeimer Candelario getting most of those at-bats and disappointing thus far (.184/.267/.350, 79 OPS+).
When I look at the stats and compare these Reds to other offenses around the league, I’m actually surprised about one thing: they’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to the most important stat. In runs scored, Cincinnati ranks 16th in baseball out of 30 teams. In the National League alone, they are ninth, but not far behind Atlanta. That seems to bode well. Maybe?
But then you look at pretty much every other team stat, and it gets ugly. In batting average, they’re dead last in the NL (.207). In on-base percentage (.287), the Reds are next to last, ahead of only Miami who is already beginning their annual fire sale. Strikeouts: second-most, after Colorado.
It’s gotten pretty bad lately, as your eyes — and Wick Terrell — have told you:
In road games this year, the collective team offense owns a meager 77 wRC+. That’s the 2nd worst mark of any offensive unit in the game (behind the woeful Chicago White Sox). For reference, the venable Skip Schumaker posted a 75 wRC+ during his final season with the Reds in 2015.
Over the past 30 days (in all games) the Reds own an even worse 71 wRC+. That’s the single worst mark of all 30 MLB clubs in that time, and is right in-line with the 70 wRC+ Skip posted across is 2014-2015 seasons with the Reds combined.
This brings into disturbing clarity just how much (a) injuries and suspension, and (b) Reds management’s refusal to put together a full roster has resulted in the offense cratering. As the numbers above show, we can’t overstate how much Friedl’s absence and the suspension of expected 3B Noelvi Marte have damaged Cincinnati’s ability to score runs. Matt McLain’s shoulder surgery is a big piece of this too, though Jonathan India has been only somewhat below average at the plate in McLain’s absence (.222/.341/.324, 91 OPS+), so the impact is less than we’ve seen at CF and 3B.
The Krall Klub who worships at the altar of Reds President Nick Krall will say that there’s no way the Reds could have predicted they’d lose three potential starters before the season began, and anyway, by signing Candelario over the winter, he did get some depth. And that’s a fair point. But he did not get the right-handed outfielder that everyone knew the Reds needed and who would have mitigated the OF disaster in Friedl’s absence (along with Jake Fraley’s frequent injuries and sickness).
Also: isn’t it the job of a big league front office to prepare for eventualities like this? Good teams aren’t sunk by a few injuries; they reload and tread water until reinforcements arrive.
Alas, even the most optimistic of us knew that this team was flawed. Flawed, but interesting. And that’s where they still are. My underlying assumptions about this team haven’t changed. Yes, this is a rough stretch. Yes, management didn’t go all-in to improve this team, just like every single other year of my adult life. No, McLain and Marte won’t be back particularly soon.
But I have to believe the offense has hit rock bottom. Remember: a team is never as good as it looks at its best, and it’s never as bad as it looks at its worst. This has to be one of those valleys Krall talked about a couple of years ago. It’s going to get better. The Reds will reel off a five-game winning streak at some point to get their heads back above water, and we’ll all be excited and engaged again. Things are bad right now, but they’ll get better, in life and in baseball.
In the meantime, it’d be really nice to have Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn in this lineup right now, wouldn’t it?
This week at Cincinnati Magazine: The Reds Navigate Choppy Waters After a Weekend Thrashing
Well, that was a disastrous weekend for the ol’ Redlegs. The hometown nine posted just two runs and 11 hits in three games against Baltimore. They’ve lost five in a row and eight of their last 10. For the first time in nearly a full calendar year, Cincinnati’s record sits below .500, at 16-18. The Reds are just a game out of last place in the National League Central. So, Reds fans, is it time to panic?
The quick answer is obviously no. It’s only the first week of May, and there are still 128 baseball games to play before playoff spots are secured. This time last year, the Reds were six games below water and turned things around. And this year’s club has something last year’s team didn’t have: quality starting pitching and a bullpen good enough that they can evidently afford to demote a reliever who hadn’t given up a run in his last 25 outings. With Opening Day starter Frankie Montas set to return this week, the pitching should be even better.
On the other hand, if you’re the type who is inclined to panic, I’ll concede that you have plenty of evidence to support your anxiety. Read the rest of this week’s Reds column over at Cincinnati Magazine.
What’s Chad Watching?
Busy week, what with moving my son out of his dorm and back home after his first year in college. Plus, our daughter was back home for a few days, so we had the entire family back under the same roof for a brief instant.
My son is already a devotee of Martin Scorsese, so I was glad to introduce him to Taxi Driver over the weekend. Robert DeNiro is brilliant as a cabbie descending into madness, and you can tell by 1976 that Scorsese is on his way to being an inner-circle Hall of Fame director. This movie remains mesmerizing.
Honestly, I’m a sucker for any movie that depicts New York City in the 1970s, which was the best decade for movies anyway. If you haven’t seen Taxi Driver, why are you waiting?
I will always pick DeNiro's performance in Bang The Drum Slowly as my favorite of his roles, playing brilliantly off of Michael Moriarity at a stage when both were young and loaded with potential.
And it should be noted that it, too, is a New York movie, made in 1973.
Neither Krall nor Bell see 2025 in Cincinnati if the Castellinis are serious about winning.