How great will Elly De La Cruz be?

Also: RIP to a Reds legend

An interesting exchange happened on Twitter/X yesterday. I’m not sure it was a particularly enlightening or informative exchange, but it was interesting in a bizarre sort of way. To be honest, I’m not certain whether it was indicative of the current-day “hot take” culture, or a variation of the classic “old man yells at cloud” baseball arguments that have happened since the sport was invented.

Evidently, a certain Reds writer* wrote a piece recently saying that the Reds should trade Elly De La Cruz. I haven’t read it, because I’m not entirely sure how you would read his publication. It’s not online, as far as I know. Print only? In 2024? That’s an interesting business strategy, I guess.

*I’m not going to mention this writer’s name today. I don’t know him, but I know people that do know him and they think well of him. Also, he wrote a book about the Reds once that I enjoyed quite a bit. So I’m making an editorial decision here. I dunno, maybe I should call him out publicly. Feel free to object in the comments.

So I saw some screenshots, but I don’t know what his argument actually was. To be fair, I guess I could put together a reasonable argument for trading Cincinnati’s young phenom. After all, I’ve said many times that no players are untouchable. I’d trade any player in the right deal.

But then this writer took to Twitter/X to defend his position. And, um, well…it’s not defensible.

First, we get this gem:

I grew up with Bob Howsam, who wasn’t afraid to make bold moves. Dealing EDLC would help clear up the roster glut and doing it now is better before he proves, like Billy Hamilton, that he can’t hit.

I wanted to be charitable after reading this. After all, there’s a chance Elly won’t be the hitter that many expect. It’s entirely possible that his incredible hitting prowess on the minor league level won’t translate to big league success. He could prove to be a disappointment relative to expectations. Comparing Elly to Billy Hamilton…well, that’s a bit hyperbolic, but…

No. He really meant it. He really thinks Elly is going to put up hitting numbers like Billy Hamilton on the big league level. When challenged by someone who said there is little similarity between Hamilton and De La Cruz beyond their spectacular speed, this particular pundit responded: “The similarity is they can’t hit.”

Yikes.

I have to admit, I feel bad about this portion of this week’s missive. I’m an unapologetic fan of Billy Hamilton. He’s one of my favorite Reds ever. He did things on the baseball field that I had never seen before, and I’ll defend him to my dying day. The guy was a comic book superhero.

But comparing Elly’s hitting ability to Hamilton’s is just ludicrous. I mean, come on. Completely indefensible. I guess I could do a deep dive into the differences, but it’s so silly on its face that I can’t be compelled to waste my time. Go compare their minor league hitting stats. The pedigrees are dissimilar in every way. Except their other-wordly speed, I suppose.

But it gets even sillier! According to this guy, Elly is actually worse than Billy. Because, in his words:

Unlike Hamilton, EDLC also can’t field. I’m a defense guy.

A pretty good Twitter/X follow named Kyle Berger challenged him on, well, pretty much everything:

Elly was an above average fielder at both positions he played in 2023 by OAA, widely considered the best publicly available defensive metric. Additionally, his 84 wRC+, which represents much closer to his floor than his ceiling, was higher than Hamilton’s *best* season.

The writer’s response: “I trust my eyes. EDLC couldn’t catch routine relay throws.”

<chef’s kiss> Incredible.

A good friend of mine (and a good writer), Jason Linden, wrote something this week over at Redleg Nation that is a pretty good rebuttal to this nonsense, even though it wasn’t written as a response. Jason compares Elly, at this point in his career, to a certain Reds Hall of Famer.

I’m going to spoil the surprise. Before I do that, I urge you to go read Jason’s piece. But he’s talking about Barry Larkin.

I’m never a big fan of certainty when things aren’t certain. And I like context. Lately, there has been a lot of talk about how badly De La Cruz started and not much acknowledgement that he was 21, in the big leagues, and not a mess. He wasn’t Juan Soto or Bryce Harper, but almost no one is at that age. Almost no Hall of Famers are that good at that age. Barry Larkin certainly wasn’t.

No, I don’t think he is the next Larkin. Or maybe he is. I don’t know. NO ONE KNOWS. I know he has a mountain of talent. I know he destroyed the minor leagues. And I know he started his career with stats that are very similar to the last shortstop to go into the Hall of Fame as a Red.

I will add another data point. Larkin committed 52 errors in his first 300 games as Reds shortstop. He went on to win three Gold Gloves (and deserved at least a couple that were given to late-career Ozzie Smith). Is it possible that Elly, like Barry, will improve defensively after debuting at a particularly young age?

Now, do I know that Elly will improve and become an elite defender like Larkin? Do I know that he will be a superstar hitter, living up to the hype generated by his minor league exploits?

No, of course not. But here’s what I do know*: it’s the height of absurdity to pass judgment on this kid when he just turned 22 years-old. The sky is still the limit for Elly. And I can’t wait to see what he does in 2024.

*I stand by my opinions. Even my silly ones have my name attached to them. The writer’s name I’ve been talking about is Mark Schmetzer. If he wants to respond, I’ll print it in this space.

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RIP Don Gullett

Reds Hall of Famer Don Gullett passed away this week at age 73. If you aren’t familiar, Gullett was a Kentucky high school sports legend in three sports and one of the most talented pitchers in Reds history:

A three-sport star in high school, Don Gullett became a professional baseball player at the age of 18. After a short stint in the minors, he became the mainstay of the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff. Before he was 25 years old he was being compared to Sandy Koufax and seemingly was headed for Cooperstown. But misfortune struck. In short order he suffered a broken thumb, a dislocated ankle tendon, injuries to his neck and shoulder, and as the last straw a double tear of his rotator cuff, from which he was unable to recover. He pitched his last major-league game at the age of 27, his dreams of the Hall of Fame over too soon.

My friend Bill and I discussed Gullett’s legacy this week on the pod.

RIP, legend.

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Eleven consecutive seasons?

After discussions with my brilliant editor this week, I’m happy to announce that this year will be the eleventh consecutive season that I will be covering the Cincinnati Reds for Cincinnati Magazine. That number — 11! — seems unreal to me, but I love the Mag. They give me a pretty wide berth, never discouraging me from writing pieces that will upset Reds management, unlike other print outlets in the Greater Cincinnati Area. (Such as this one and this one and this one.)

After this piece, I got some feedback that Reds ownership was not happy, wondering “who put him up to” writing this, as if my angle were anything other than telling the truth, as I see it.

I don’t intentionally set out to write things that irritate the Castellinis. The vast majority of my writing over there is straight analysis, and much of it celebrates the Reds without mentioning this club’s lousy ownership. On the other hand, I’m not afraid of them either, and that’s because of the freedom that Cincinnati Magazine gives me. Hey, I may get things wrong from time to time, but I’ll never do anything other than tell it like I see it.

Anyway, I look back on my first piece for The Mothership, and I see myself squinting, hoping for a good Reds season, just like we all have many times over the years

Let’s not fool ourselves: Getting all these guys healthy and productive again won’t give the Reds an elite offense. But maybe—just maybe—they can boost the run production to a level that, when combined with the club’s excellent pitching, will keep the Reds in the thick of the pennant race. At this point, that’s all we can really hope.

There’s that word again. But I’ll own it—I’m hopeful.

I remain hopeful. It’s the only reason I keep writing words about this dumb and somehow still awesome baseball club.